3.0 Satisfaction Cost, and Wine Production Analysis

I am fine with wine production now, how should I be after the update?

I'll start with assumptions and the move onto analysis and conclusion:

Assumptions:

Wine production should double after the update. A worker instead of producing one wine every two hours should produce one every hour.

The cost of wine:

v2.8
1worker, 2 hours, at 4g an hour (opportunity cost, forget the trading post)
= 8gold per wine.

v3.0
1worker, 1 hour, at 3g (4gold should conclude the same, but we'll use 3 as it will be the new opportunity cost)
= 3gold per wine.

The cost of satisfaction is as follows:

v2.8
3wine per 80people, per hour. These are an average, but if used for both calculations should be acceptable.

v3.0
3wine per 60people, per hour. ""

Analysis

The v2.8 cost per satisfaction should be:
1wine X 3 = 24gold = 80 person satisfaction, 1hour.
= 1gold produces 3.34 satisfied persons, per hour.

The v3.0 cost per satisfaction should be:
1wine x 3 = 9gold = 60 person satisfaction, 1hour.
= 1gold produces 6.67 satisfied persons, per hour.

Conclusion:

My conclusion is therefore: the cost of satisfaction should be lower after the update; wine should be more abundant, and lower in the trading post; and more importantly, the building that lowers wine demand may not be the most important necessary.

The first conclusion is straight from the calculations and assuming they are right then my first statement is correct.

The second conclusion, wine should be more abundant, and lower cost at the trading post, rests on market forces, which I believe will work in this context. People will probably produce more, and given an opportunity to sell for more tan 8g, someone will be selling at the trading post.

The last conclusion I made, the wine-demand-reducing-building, is a tough one, this one will depend on your circumstances. If you have an abundance of open spaces, and don't have a wine colony, then it may make sense for you to build the building. If you currently are self-sufficient on wine, or are even selling some, expect to be fine; or expect to receive a lower cost for it afterwords.


Closing Remarks:

I'm posting this to help figure out what all we should be building in our open spaces following the update. To also have others review my work to make sure that it is correct. I first began this with a conversation with Veer, but I felt publishing it for more review would yield quicker results for the alliance.

When I played on the test server I started on a wine island, so I can only really comment on low level towns (under lv 10) but I don't imagine it would be any different at higher levels, really.

But my personal experience was I always had too much wine - to a point where I had to reduce production as my warehouses were full, and I still had plenty to sell, and at least in the area I was located, the prices were low.

Just to be on the safe side, I have my taverns in most towns 2-3 levels higher than they need to be right now (I hope that's enough) and I have all my museums soft capped.

Hey Spart,

I am trying to answer to your message to me here on the forum itself. As far as I am concerned I haven't made all the calculations myself, I only tried to look into the available data from other players and so far the only question I have tried to answer is will there be enough spaces to accommodate all the ten buildings. I did realize that I should make calculations similar to yours but I am caught up in lab work.

Quote :

On the 23.01.2009 4:25 Spart wrote::
> Yeah I meant to add that when I was typing but guess I forgot.
>
> If you are getting say x wine now and your people are happy, if one drink of wine is only worth 75% afterwords (80people -> 60people) then you will need 33% more wine to produce the same level of happiness. However, with the new luxury output, you will be getting 100% more. Which should mean a real increase in output by 66%.
>
> Or to talk this in terms of gold, 1wine cost 4gold to produce (opportunity cost), and he makes one wine every two hours, so it takes 6 man hours, or 24gold to produce enough wine for 80 people happy per hour (3wine average lets assume). Which means about .3g per persons wine, per hour.
>
> When 3.0 comes out, the new cost for wine should be half, 2g -even less if a civilian only makes 3g now an hour-, but we should get the same conclusion either way if I do this right. So now were at 2g per wine, half the orig. cost, needing 3 wine for an hours delivery, we satisfy 60 people for 6g, which means 10people per gold, or .1g per persons wine, per hour. A lower overall cost.
>
> I used average wine of 3 per 80/60 people, but that doesn't matter because at each point the per satisfaction cost should remain lower in 3.0
>
> Your thoughts? If I've done the math right and you don't see anything wrong with it I'l post this on the forum for everyone to see themselves how we should be cool after the update, on wine.

So here are my thoughts to your calculations. I think you have done a very good job working out these calculations and everyone wil benefit from these. You seem to be correct to an extent with proving your assumption that your population should be able to manage without the wine reducing building.

I haven't really seen what the actual decrease in satisfaction is going to be but I will go by your data. 33% increase in demand. 33% increase in demand will for sure be overwhelmed by 100% output increase, leaving you with additional 66% wine. But this goes for your wine town, you will have one crystal, one marble, one sulfur at least, or lets say you will have 3 more towns that will not be on a wine island. Hence the wine output increase on these island is 0% but still the consumption increase is still 33% (x 3). So your wine town is going to meet out to the demands of these remaining towns too. Now the calculation gets complicated here (at least to me, I have always hated math from the bottom of my heart) Your wine production will depend on the wine yard level of your island. The wine consumption will depend on the population in each town. So the 33% increase in each town is not going to be equal but will be a function of the population of that town. However, your wine production will be a function of the wine yard level and the number of employees you can get in there. So the actual formula for coming up with whether or not you will be left with excess wine or not will need to integrate these variables in the formula.

To first give a simplest formula possible-

N - (C1+C2+C3+C4) = WL

N = number of workers in your wine town = amount of wine produced per hour

WL = amount of wine left per hour after consumption.

C1= the consumption in town 1 (similarly C2,C3 andC4) to keep the entire population happy.

Again here it is making an assumption that your tavern level is to that point that is provides wine to keep happy your entire population of the town which has reached its maximum at the current town hall level and is not growing.

If WL is negative one or more town might still go unhappy if it is positive the towns will be happy and you will have wine accumulating
over time to sell.

Of course the towns do not depend on the wine alone, even museums contribute to satisfaction, Your capital has its capital bonus. There will also be some bonus from researches done, the tavern and museum levels themselves provide some satisfaction. All these factors will vary from player to player, town to town.

This is from the 0.3.0 released data page. From it you can find your current level of satisfaction and see how much wine you'll need to serve, to maintain your current lvl.




TOWN
Jeuno: current.47 - cr.satis 1040 = new.serv150 [satisfaction of 1080]
Jeunomi: current.42 - cr.satis 960 = new.serv122 [satisfaction of 960]
Jeunoc: current.42 - cr.satis 960 = new.serv122 [satisfaction of 960]
Jeunowi: current.33 - cr.satis 800 = new.serv99 [satisfaction of 840]
Jeunome: current.25 - cr.satis 640 = new.serv68 [satisfaction of 660]
Sums: Currently serving 189 - Currently Satisfying 4400 = New Wine Requirement471 [satisfaction of 4500]

Appears I'm going to need about 471 workers producing wine. Which is a really high vineyard.

It appears everyone will need the building for reducing the need of wine. Sorry for the mixup. Appears my cost of satisfaction was off by a bit. In the later stages it will cost as much as 20 wine for 60 more satisfaction, which is dramatically higher than 3. They diluted the value of each level of wine serving - each worth 60 more satisfaction - and increased the requirement for each level. From 2-5-7 or however the first few levels on the current tavern go, they move from 4, to 8, to 13 quickly.